North Platte, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

898
FXUS63 KLBF 250524
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1224 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and a few thunderstorms possible this evening and
  overnight, though widespread severe weather is not expected

- Slightly below average high temperatures continue through
  Saturday

- Much warmer Sunday with a low confidence thunderstorm threat.
  If storms can form, there would be potential for all modes of
  severe weather during the afternoon and evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 335 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

A few showers with embedded thunderstorms have developed in the
western Sandhills this afternoon likely associated with weak mid
level frontogenesis existing in a shallow layer of instability also
in the mid levels. With temperatures only in the 40s across this
area, it requires the inflow region of these storms to exist above
the surface and with weak FGEN along a small thermal gradient in
this area at around 700 mb, it would appear as though the still
existing southerly flow at this level is enough to create the
necessary mesoscale lift to achieve lightning, in some cases.
12Z CAMs were generally not hitting on this area, with the
exception of the experimental RRFS. While the footprint of this
convective area was expanding to the north, analysis of IR
satellite imagery suggested that one or two cores may hold
together for a few hours yet and will be maintained in the
forecast.

Overnight, again 12Z models and specifically CAMs did not yield a
lot of confidence in a cohesive scenario for the area as it pertains
to development and maintenance of thunderstorms past sunset. With
marginal mid level lapse rates overnight the forecast will side on
primarily rain showers will a few embedded thunderstorms, though
widespread thunderstorm activity is not expected at this time. As
such, the threat for any severe weather is low overnight.

Friday will likely start with low clouds remaining as the low level
flow becomes more northerly. Some persistent showers may be ongoing
as well across the area, though precipitation chances decrease
significantly after noon most areas. High temperatures will remain
below average for this time of year and in the 50s most areas.
Showers and a few thunderstorms are again possible overnight as
more development further west have the potential to sustain as
they move into the area. Low temperatures will hold close to
tonights with clouds remaining as well.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 335 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

After a period of lower amplitude hemispheric flow over the last
week, the development of an upper level low pressure system off the
CA coast by late Friday will begin a transition back to higher
amplitude waves progressing across the Pacific through next week.
This will result in a bit of a pattern shift across western and
north central NE by mid next week.

Clouds and rain shower chances will remain for much of the day
Saturday before clearing out late in the day, keeping
temperatures below average for this time of year. By Saturday
night, the approach of the aforementioned upper low will result
in pressure falls in the lee of the Rockies and favor southerly
low level jet formation Saturday night and into Sunday across
the High Plains. This will be responsible for advecting low
level moisture back into the area by Sunday afternoon. As the
low moves into the Great Basin, the upper flow will turn
southwesterly and increase which will do two things 1) create a
downslope component proximate to the higher terrain of eastern
CO and WY and 2)increase the deep layer shear which is favorable
for organized convection. The downslope and resultant drier
airmass along the foothills and High Plains will become
positioned to the west of the increasingly moist low levels in
central and eastern NE and KS. This will develop a distinct
dryline from western NE southward into the TX Panhandle. East of
the dryline, sufficient instability, and the deep layer shear
mentioned earlier, will set the stage for an environment
favorable for strong to severe thunderstorms by late Sunday
afternoon across the area. However, large scale models at this
juncture are generally not generating widespread thunderstorms
due to a capping inversion that results from the warming of mid
levels. Therefore although confidence is low in model output at
this time, the setup is one familiar to severe weather analogs
across the area that have noted plenty of severe weather events
with a similar pattern in the past. So, this will definitely be
one we`re watching as we go into the weekend.

As the upper system pulls away from the area Monday, a cold
front will dive southward in its wake and bring temperatures for
midweek closer to seasonal norms. A drier weather pattern is
favored for midweek as well.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025

Widespread IFR/LIFR conditions are expected to prevail through
early this afternoon, before gradual improvements are expected
this evening and tonight. Additionally, showers and embedded
thunderstorms will continue for a few more hours across
southwest and central Nebraska, with brief visibility reductions
to MVFR. Patchy fog also will persist for most area terminals
through late this morning, with IFR/locally LIFR visibility.

Winds remain northerly this morning before becoming easterly
this afternoon, at around 10 to 15 kts.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Stoppkotte
LONG TERM...Stoppkotte
AVIATION...Brown